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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."