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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still